Sabtu, 28 Juni 2008

Tipe-tipe Trader

Sepanjang pengalaman saya di dunia forex, saya mengenal berbagai macam trader. Namun secara garis besar, saya menemukan tiga besar tipe trader:

  1. Trader Posisi
    Trader posisi adalah seorang trader yang melakukan open posisi dengan tujuan pips yang besar (diatas 200 pips). Trader tipe ini tidak begitu menghiraukan pergerakan harga dalam skala kecil. Biasanya mereka menggunakan chart daily, weekly, bahkan monthly. Trader posisi lebih menekankan pada analisa fundamental yang kuat.
  2. Trader Daily / Tren Follower
    Trader daily bermain secara harian atau intra day. Mereka masuk pasar jika tren sudah terbentuk. Biasanya lebih mengandalkan pada analisa teknikal. Filosofi trader ini adalah buy di low dan sell di high. Time frame yang mereka gunakan adalah 4 hours, 1 hours, 30 minutes, dan 15 minutes.
  3. Voltaile trader
    Voltaile trader adalah trader yang melakukan open posisi pada waktu volume perdagangan membesar. Volume perdagangan membesar terjadi bila terdapat berita-berita yang mempengaruhi suatu perekonomian suatu negara. Time frame yang dipakai adalah 1 minutes dan 5 minutes.

    Nah, sekarang anda dapat memilih ingin menjadi trader yang mana. Apakah Trader Posisi, Trend Follower, atau Voltaile Trader. Semuanya memiliki kelebihan dan keuntungan masing-masing. Tidak ada yang lebih buruk maupun lebih baik, semua tergantung oleh jiwa trader anda.

Konsep-Konsep Forex Trading

Dari berbagai macam literature dan pengalaman yang telah saya peroleh, hampir 90% trader forex mengalami kegagalan. Hanya 10% yang berhasil meningkatkan uang mereka. Kegagalan disini diartikan bangkrut, uang tidak bertambah, dan rugi.

Lalu apa penyebabnya??
Berikut hasil pikiran saya:

  1. Forex Trading Bukan Matematika
    Orang menganggap forex sebagai salah satu ilmu yang matematis, artinya apabila X ditambah Y maka akan menjadi Z. Forex tidak seperti itu. Didunia ini tidak ada satu orang / lembaga yang mampu memprediksi pergerakan harga tepat 100%.
  2. Tekanan Emosi
    Berbisnis forex membutuhkan modal yang tidak sedikit, meskipun ada broker yang memberikan kemudahan trading hanya dengan $1. Biasanya untuk memulai bisnis forex, modal minimum yang dibutuhkan adalah $100 (pengalaman saya dengan modal $100, return perbulannya adalah $40).
    Jadi terdapat tekanan emosi seperti takut kalah, rasa tamak, tidak puas, dan penasaran yang menyelimuti trader (ini berbeda jika anda bermain dalam virtual account).

    Jadi apabila anda sudah terjun ke forex trading atau akan terjun, sebaiknya pahami konsep tersebut. Jangan pernah merasa bisa tetapi gunakan suatu sistem trading yang tetap dan menguntungkan. Karena dengan menggunakan sistem trading, anda tidak akan terpengaruh akan tekanan emosi. Dan biarkan sistem bekerja!

Fundamental Analysis Part I

Dalam melakukan analisa forex, seorang trader harus mempunyai kemampuan analisa fundamental.
Analisa fundamental diartikan sebagai analisa ekonomi secara makro baik terhadap suatu negara. Apabila anda adalah seorang trader EURO/USD, maka anda harus memperhatikan perkembangan ekonomi negara-negara Eropa dan Amerika. Kenapa? Karena yang menggerakan pasar adalah keadaan negara tersebut. Apabila suatu negara mempunyai fundamental ekonomi yang baik, maka kemungkinan besar nilai tukar mata uang nya akan menguat.

Lalu dimana kita bisa mecari informasi tersebut?
Jawabannya adalah internet. Di internet semua informasi ekonomi suatu negara bisa diketahui. Coba anda cek di www.forexfactory.com, www.forexnews.com, www.vibiznews.com, dan lain sebagainya. Situs-situs tersebut menyajikan berbagai informasi secara gratis tentang fundamental ekonomi dunia.

Nah, anda sudah mengetahui caranya dan tempat untuk mencari informasinya kan. Segera update wawasan dan pengetahuan anda.

Apakah Forex Trading itu?

Forex atau Foreign Exchange adalah salah satu bentuk pasar keuangan yang terbesar di dunia. Volume perdagangan di pasar Forex, dalam satu harinya bisa mencapai $1,95 tryliun.
Yang menjadi bahan perdagangan di pasar forex adalah nilai tukar suatu mata uang. Dalam pasar forex, mata uang yang sering diperdagangkan adalah GBP/USD, EURO/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, GBP/EURO, AUD/JPY, GBP/CHF, EURO/JPY, dan lainnya. Kenapa hanya mata uang tersebut yang diperdagangkan? Jawabannya adalah karena pergerakan nilai tukarnya cepat dan volume yang diperdagangkan juga besar.
Pasar Forex dibuka hampir 24 jam. Dimulai dari waktu Australia, yaitu sekitar pukul 04.00 GMT+7, Tokyo 07.00 GMT+7, London 14.00 GMT+7, Amerika 19.00 GMT+7. Perlu diketahui, bahwa waktu terbaik untuk bertransaksi forex adalah pada sesi pembukaan Eropa (London) dan Amerika. Kenapa? Karena pada sesi tersebut volume perdagangan cukup besar dan terjadi pergerakkan-pergerakkan mata uang yang sangat cepat.

Keuntungan Pasar Forex
Pasar Forex Sangat Likuid
Karena setiap hari volume perdagangan dalam pasar forex hampir mencapai $1,95 tryliun dan pasar terbuka 24 jam, maka pasar forex sangat likuid. Hasil yang diperoleh dapat langsung dinikmati / dicairkan

Two Ways Opportunity
Tidak seperti pasar saham /stock exchange, dimana hanya ada transaksi buy lalu ditutup dengan sell, pasar forex mempunyai two ways opportunity artinya selain anda bisa melakukan transaksi buy lalu di tutup dengan sell, anda juga bisa melakukan transaksi sell terlebih dahulu baru ditutup dengan buy.
Keuntungan dari sistem ini adalah, seperti apapun harga yang terjadi baik naik atau turun, anda tetap bisa memperoleh keuntungan. Apabila harga naik anda buy lalu tutup dengan sell. Namun apabila harga turun, maka anda pun bisa untung dengan sell lalu tutup dengan buy.

Sistem Leverage
Dalam pasar forex dikenal sisitem leverage, yaitu anda bisa bertransaksi senilai $100,000 dengan menggunakan uang $1,000 (leverage 1:100). Sungguh keuntungan bukan. Banyak broker-broker yang menawarkan leverage bermacam-macam mulai dari 1:1, 1:10, 1:50, 1:100, 1:200, dan sebagainya. Bahkan ada broker yang memberikan kemudahan untuk trading hanya dengan modal $1, seperti marketiva.

Forex Trading – If You Want To Win Don't Listen To The News!

It is my firm contention that if you listen or pay attention to the news in forex trading you will lose.
In recent years and with the rise of the internet there is more news that is delivered quicker than ever before, however do more traders win on forex trading than 20 years ago?
No.
Success is dependent on something else, not economic data.
If you want to make money in forex trading you need to study something else and that something else is:
Human psychology.
But surely supply and demand fundamentals move markets?
Yes they do to a degree, but it is humans that buy and sell and it is people who actually determine the price of anything.
If it was a simple case of studying supply and demand fundamentals a lot more traders would win, but they don’t and that’s a fact.
You need to study the fundamentals combined with human psychology to determine where prices will go.
The best way to do this is a system based upon technical analysis and a study of charts.
This method studies both together.
As economic data comes out a technical trader simply assumes that all fundamentals are instantly reflected in the price action.
But technical analysis does something more:
It studies human psychology.
Human mass behavior is constant and shows up in repetitive price patterns and reflects the emotion of the participants.
Therefore we have the following equation:
Fundamentals + Human Psychology = Price Action
A chartist by following price action will study both together and get the complete picture.
Take a recent example of how hard it is to study fundamentals in isolation.
Stock markets have tumbled around the world based on lower growth in the USA and China.
The fundamentals have been pointing to this for months.
Yet, until yesterday prices were rising.
So what help would a study of the supply and demand situation done for your trading?
Not much.
You would have been selling a bull market and losing, as trader’s emotions and greed propelled prices higher.
This happens all the time in stocks, currencies or any other market.
Human psychology pushes prices to far up or down despite the news as humans respond to the emotions of hope, greed and fear.
Viewing the market from an objective point of view
A chart allows you to step back and look for repetitive price patterns caused by human psychology.
If you pay attention to the news, your emotions get sucked into your trading.
When they do, you will join the losing majority.
Act on what the price action tells you not what you see in the news or in the papers.
You will then see the fundamentals and human psychology combined, which is a great way to step back from the mayhem and see things from a non emotional and disciplined perspective.
FREE ESSENTIAL TRADING PDF'S + MUCH MORE
On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader FREE systems, features and your free forex PDFs visit our website at http://www.net-planet.org/index.html
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Kelly_Price

Jumat, 27 Juni 2008

SCALPING THE FOREX MARKET FOR MEGA PROFITS

Now, let me introduce you to another trading technique of making it big in the Forex market and walk away with mega profits within the shortest trading time. Believe me that I have tested this technique and will continue as long as the Forex market exists; I also want to let you know that 75% traders in Nigeria are scalpers. I really celebrated the New Year (2008) thanking God for giving me the courage to develop more on scalping as a trading strategy.
What is Scalping? Many traders don't really understand that simple word. Some even pronounced it wrongly, and if you don't understand the meaning now, you can not benefit from the mega returns that the strategy is generating in the world's largest financial market.
Scalping is a focused technique that involves making minuscule trades to generate profits within a short period of time. This method of trading the FX market is of high probability trades with extremely small risk stops and predefined profit objectives. It is also a means of taking a million trades to make a million dollars.
There are different types of traders; "Position Traders" "Intraday Traders" and "Scalpers" A position trader could engage in trades that are intended to last for multiple days or months with huge pips target of hundreds to thousands. An Intraday trader could typically engage in trades that might last for less than a day aiming for targets of 20 to 100pips while A Scalper engages in trades that might last for few minutes and the minimum target could be 5+ pips. Pick your calculator now and calculate 5pips on a 2.00 standard lots of 5 trades per day for 20 trading days (5pips x 5 trades x 20 dollars x 20 trading days = $10,000 monthly) If all the scalping techniques are adhered to. Are you saying it's not possible! Just demo trade this for a month and see what I am saying.
A scalper normally trade higher lots size or volume depending on your account size and risk acceptance. For the fact that this technique requires a maximum Stop Loss of 20pips, you must also maintain a good equity management principle. If you could just sincerely follow the rules that I will be teaching you on this technique, you could rake in more profits to your bank account without stress compared to day or position traders.
Let me sound this warning that if your account can not accommodate the risk involved scalping with higher lots or contract value, please don't trade higher lots. Simple! Because scalping is more emotional and advanced in nature in the aspect of making a very quick decision and trade execution. Don't trade without setting your stop loss when scalping. Trading without stop loss could wipe off your account with this strategy. P-L-E-A-S-E, just follow the simple trading rules that I will be sharing with you.
Scalpers often engage in multiple trades per day. Some traders execute several trades and make profits with ease. Don't worry, I will teach you the technical know-how of scalping the market. Scalps are executed in the direction of the current trend of the Forex market. You can't run away from the fact that the "trend is your friend" if you don't know the trend of the market, don't place any order.
You could also take larger profits as this lesson is getting more technical by applying trailing stop. What is Trailing Stop? Stop Loss is intended for reducing losses where the symbol or currency pair price moves in an unprofitable direction. If the position becomes profitable, stop loss can be manually shifted to a break-even level. To automate this process, Trailing Stop was created. This tool is especially useful when price changes strongly in the same direction or when it is impossible to watch the market continuously for some reason.
The beauty of scalping is that, it allows traders to trade even when other techniques would make you sit with your PC for long without trading. Scalping is best used in conjunction with or as a supplement to other trading techniques - so keep trading your normal strategy that you are used to and add scalping to your trading toolbox.
TYPES OF SCALPING
There are three methods of scalping the Forex market which I will be teaching in this article: You could apply the EMA 4/12/63 to 15 minutes chart of your trading platform and scalp with the strategy. Alternatively, apply the one I will be sharing basically for this technique.
1. Time-sensitive trades: This comes in 2 forms: Firstly, in opening range breakouts, where a quick scalp is taken minutes before the open, in the direction of any market thrust. Meanwhile, if care is not taken, the bull back preceding the breakout of the 6:45 GMT might strike your stop loss. But you can perfectly study the market; and scalp to make profits before the main breakout. And I will advise you always use your Bollinger Bands, preferably on a separate 15mins chart.
Secondly, trading to capitalize on the regular market turnaround time of the New York opening session. Infact, scalping is the best strategy to apply because something must happen. Keep your eyes also on 15 to 30 minutes to the FA release. I bet you that you would have made your target before the news. Then if the news is worth trading, trade and make more profits. Always tie this law on your neck and do not let it depart from you "make 20 or 30pips per day and every other pips shall be added unto thee"
2. Countertrend trades: Scalping when the market is silent or consolidating during the trading day. It could be the Asia session too. This might not be the best anyway because it is not advisable to trade against the TREND but if you can study cadlesticks patterns very well, i am sure you will Scalp 10 pips perfectly on retracement.
3. Trend continuation trades: These methods focus on entering the market in the direction of a trend AFTER the trend has gone underway. It is good to use the breakout strategy to get into the trend earlier and trade along the trend because the probabilities of trading along the trend is higher than trading against it.
One of the most liquid, active and electronically accessible market is Online Forex Trading and I feel the scalping method represents the best known chances for picking consistent profits as a trader/scalper.
Oh! Getting interesting? Then I expect you to contribute, so that I can show you more ways of scalping the market soon.
Scalping is a very good trading strategy but I will like to encourage you that this strategy is not for all traders because of the emotion and risk involved. It is an advanced trading method that needs to be mastered before committing your live account. The scalping trading strategy that I will be sharing involves simple indicators; MACD and MOVING AVARAGE(s).
The MACD is an acronym for Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. It is a trend following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD default is the difference between a 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day exponential moving average, called the signal or trigger line is plotted on top of the MACD to show buy/sell opportunities.
MACD's can be used as an oscillator, does that sound too technical? No! Oscillators indicates that the asset will revert back to its mean valuation OR a Momentum indicator; indicates that the trend is strong and will continue. Parameters: The MACD line is the difference between the 12 and 26 day EMA. The signal line is the 9 day EMA of the MACD. Visually, the MACD consists of three elements, like the MACD, it is a line plotted on the bottom of the chart. The MACD line. This is simply the difference between the 12 and 26 day EMA. It is a line plotted on the chart. The Histogram. The MACD histogram is simply a bar chart located at the bottom/top of the chart, where the MACD and signal lines are plotted. The histogram is simply a visual representation of the difference between the MACD and the signal line. The "zero" point of the histogram - meaning the point where the bars cross above and below - is referred to as the centerline.
A Trade Signal is received when the MACD crosses the signal line. Traders can enter positions following the direction of the MACD Overbought/Oversold. No specific numbers indicate whether it is overbought or oversold, but if it is relatively far from its mean compared to its recent history, this may suggest that it is due for a decline. Divergence occurs when the pair makes new highs/lows but the MACD does not, this suggests divergence, and that the trend may in fact be weakening with a reversal in store. The MACD crossover is a straight-forward indicator that provides precise timing for entry points. The one drawback of this indicator is that it is sometimes too slow to provide a signal. Sometimes it signals an entry several candles after the ideal entry point. The price has already moved far enough that the trade no longer has a favorable risk: reward ratio. Always consider support/resistance when entering a trade regardless of the crossovers.
MACD is truly a trend following indicator - sacrificing early signals in exchange for keeping you on the right side of the market. When a significant trend developed, the MACD would alert you on how to capture majority of the move. Moreover, MACD proves most effective in wide-swinging trading markets and there are three popular ways to use the MACD: Crossovers, Overbought/Oversold Conditions, and Divergences.
CROSSOVERS: The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line. While a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line. It is also popular to buy or sell when the MACD goes above or below zero line.
OVERBOUGHT OR OVERSOLD CONDITIONS: The MACD is also useful as an overbought or oversold indicator. When the shorter moving average pulls away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to more realistic levels. MACD overbought and oversold conditions exist vary from security to security.
DIVERGENCES: This is an indication that an end to the current trend may soon change when the MACD diverges from the security. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while prices fail to reach new lows. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively overbought or oversold areas.
Now, for the Scalping Trading Strategy, you will modify the MACD default by 2 deviations. And you must follow the trading rule strictly, work on your trading plan and target per trade. Preferably, 5 to 10pips is attainable with this system but once you make your target, PLEASE close your trading platform to avoid over trading, agreed and losses. Does it sound funny? You can not exempt yourself from the fact that emotions can't rule your trading strategy and plan when you over trade.
To set up MACD for scalping, subtract 2 from the default parameters i.e. Fast EMA = 12 to 10, Slow EMA = 26 to 24, MACD SMA = 9 to 7, Apply to Close. Select the Color Tab and change the color to your favorite, you could also increase the line style. Click the Levels Tab - Add the Zero line and also change the color. You could also double-click the Description space opposite the zero value and type "Center Signal" and increase the line style too. Under the Visualization Tab, deselect the "All Timeframes" and select M15 only because this trading strategy work best on 15 minutes chart and you could also try it on 5 minutes. But I recommend 15 minutes because of how emotional and noisy the 5 minutes chart is.
Add EMA 4 (yellow), LMA 10 (DarkTurquoise), LMA 120 (white), LMA 40 - 90 (red) to your trading chart.
HOW TO INTERPRET THE MOVING AVERAGES: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 4 is the fast EMA, Linear Weighted Moving Average (LMA) 10 is the slow LMA, LMA 120 is the Trend line while LMA 40 to 90 signifies how stronger or weaker the trend of the market is. Let me quickly state here that; do not trade when the market is trendless/sideways or consolidating because the opportunity of trading is always indecisive. I believe you know that there are three types of market trend; and you should not trade against the trend because the probability of trading along the trend is more than trading against it.
BASIC SYSTEM RULES:
Buy Signal
Notice the confirming indicators: EMA 4 crossed LMA 10 upward on up trend is advisable and realistic of achieving your target daily i.e. both moving averages crossed LMA 120, then set your Stop Loss 10pips below the LMA 120 or look for the swing low. Also confirm you signal when the MACD histogram is above the 0 line; signaling upward momentum.
Sell Signal
The chart is an example of SELL signal. Notice how MACD Histogram went from positive to negative, and how the moving averages confirmed the sell signal. The EMA 4 crossed LMA 10 down. Set your Stop Loss 10pips above the LMA 120.
When LMA 40 - 90 are above the LMA 120, it implies that the market is in up trend while below LMA 120 signifies down trend. You should also watch for overbought and over sold. Do not join the traders with mentality of "it will soon reverse" at losses. Get the trend as early as possible and follow the trend to maximize your profits.
Using 15 minutes chart, 10 to 20 pips is a realistic initial profit target, especially if you are trading EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USDCHF etc. Even the other major currency pairs should yield this much on a properly measured signal.
TRADING PERIOD FOR THIS STRATEGY: Always watch out for good trading opportunity between 7:45 am NG time to 11:45 am for morning trading session, while 1.00 pm NG time to 3.45 pm is advisable for afternoon session.
TARGET: The purpose of scalping is making small profits while exposing a trading account to a very limited risk, which is due to a quick open/close trading method. I will advise you go for 10 pips plus spread per trade and demo trade this strategy for a month before going live with it. You could even go for 5 pips if you notice that the market is almost at it peak.
HIDDEN SECRETS: An additional advantage for traders technically is when there is no major news affecting the market. You will always see a clear trend for the day. When trading using technical indicators, make sure you know when the news is going to be released so that you can position yourself. i.e. close your trade 10 to 15 minutes before the (FA) news. Then 15 minutes after the (FA) news, you could trade.
You are already at the top!
TAIWO BALOGUN
www.fxlebconcepts.com

Forex Trading Tip - Accept This Fact If You Want to Win!

This is a sobering fact - but unless you accept it then you will never win at forex trading so here is your fore tip to put you on the right track...
You're on your own and only you can give yourself success - no one else. Forget all the $100 buck robots promising you financial freedom, try these forex systems and they will burn your equity. They have never been traded and have made paper profits only and wouldn't sell for $100 bucks either. Also forget all the mentors with their secrets - there hardly secrets if you know them!
Even if you do find someone to follow who has a good forex trading strategy, you can still lose, if you don't have confidence in what you're doing and understand the logic. The reason is - if you don't understand how and why the system works, you won't have the confidence to follow it, through losing periods and all trading systems have these.
You're on your own - if you follow or if you have your own forex trading system - you have to execute it with discipline.
If you understand this, then the forex market is probably an area you can make money, if you don't, either re think your forex education or do something else.
Forex trading is hard and you would expect that - with the rewards on offer.
Keep in mind 95% of traders lose and that's a fact so it's not easy.
Now if you have the right mindset, you learn currency trading the right way and win and the good news is:
Anyone can learn to trade - trading is a learned skill, so you just have to do it the right way and that doesn't mean working hard, it means working smart. A couple of weeks and you will be all set. All you need is a simple, logical forex trading strategy you can execute with discipline and your on your way.
In forex trading it's not about how much time you spend on your market timing - you are judged on how much money you make with your trading signal and that's it and a simple trading system will work well.
So if you want to win, you. Simply, get the right forex knowledge and apply it with discipline and you can earn a great second or life changing income, in under 30 minutes a day and enjoy currency trading success.
About the Author
FREE FOREX STARTER PACK 5 X PDFS - DAILY RESEARCH AND MUCH MORE!
For free infopack and free research and more get your 5 x FREE Forex PDFS visit our website at: http://www.learncurrencytradingonline.com.

Kamis, 26 Juni 2008

Japanese Candlesticks Are Calling For a Bounce in Index Prices

The Dow Industrials Index has been in a fairly steady slide since it made a double top in May. The Dow has already spiked down beneath its March low, which may turn out to be an important waypoint. The S&P 500 has tagged along in quite the same overall pattern. The declines in the NASDAQs, the S&P 600 SmallCaps, and the Russell 2000 have been more chaotic. All of them are at or near lows of about two months ago.
The patterns that we are seeing today in the Candlesticks and in the various Indicators for the Dow Industrials and for the S&P 500 suggest "indecision" and the possibility of a trend reversal. The price patterns in the NASDAQs, the S&P 600, and the Russell 2000 are much more persistently downbeat. They are "leading the pack," as they often are wont to do.
No Candlestick pattern, or Indicator, or group of Indicators, is foolproof. However, based on the historical record we know that certain patterns are generally reliable in their prediction of the direction of price trend. We could be fooled this time, just as we have been fooled before; but the patterns are so clear and so prevalent across several Indexes that the odds seem to say that prices will bounce from approximately this point, or from moderately lower levels.
If they do rise, how far are they likely to go? Again, on the basis of historical precedent prices may be expected to retrace between 38% and 62% of the previous major decline. If history holds true this time, we might expect to see the Dow top out at between 12,270 and 12,600. The strength of the decline since last October may rule out anything much more than a very modest bounce. Likewise, the "drag effect" of the NASDAQs, the S&P 600, and the Russell 2000 may put an early stop to any rise in the Industrials and in the S&P 600.
Today is the first day of the two-day meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee. We expect to hear the result of its deliberations tomorrow afternoon. Any spark of good news might tend to set the market off in an upward direction. There is ample speculation in the marketplace about the likely course of interest rates. The Fed is caught between a desire (on the one hand) to increase interest rates in an effort to tamp down inflation, and (on the other) to lower them as an attempt to light a fire under the housing market. Unfortunately, there is a degree of mutual exclusivity there; the Fed (and the country) cannot have it both ways.
Regardless of the outcome of the meeting, it does appear that the odds are increasing in favor of the proposition that we can reasonably expect to see a bounce in Index prices quite soon. We shall see.
William Kurtz June 24, 2008 http://www.candlewave.com
The author is an experienced investor; a retired attorney and corporate CEO; has passed the NASD Series 65 Investment Adviser exam; and is the creator of the "Candelaabra" technical analysis system for use in all financial markets. He publishes free investment advisories three times per week at http://www.candlewave.com/ Come look! The latest issue is ready and waiting for you.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=William_Kurtz

Euro menguat, Fed pertahankan suku bunga

Keputusan The Fed untuk tetap mempertahankan suku bunga sebesar 2% ternyata memberikan dampak yang cukup besar bagi dollar.
Setelah berita dikeluarkan euro dan gbp menguat hampir 150 poin ke 1.5687 dan 1.9769

Seperti yang diprediksikan, tampaknya The Fed masih tetap fokus akan inflasi global yang terjadi.

Untuk analisa hari ini, diperkirakan euro dan gbp akan mengalami sedikit koreksi.

Rabu, 25 Juni 2008

We will tell you WHAT TO TRADE and WHEN TO TRADE

Have you ever thought of trading Forex but got scared off by all the complicated stuff. Now there's a way to grab tons of cash without ever having to analyse anything.
If you really want to make money,
spend 5 minutes and read this.
Forex is the largest currency market in the world. It isn't located in any particular city or town. As a
matter of fact it isn't located anywhere -it is entirely electronic. All you need to start investing
money on Forex is ONE dollar and access to the Internet. These easy to fulfil requirements are the
reason why millions of people invest their money on Forex every day. Among the investors are
professional stock brokers, accountants, housewives, retired persons, students, engineers and stay-
at-home mothers -literally anybody. There's no need for any specialised knowledge or skills to
become a Forex trader.
» Is it simple?
Yes, very simple. What more - it can't be any simpler.
The Forex market users log in to their accounts via the Internet and, in the simplest case, they see in
their browsers the following:
Of course there are more sophisticated tools such as charts and other available, but the basic case
looks exactly as above.
Now, all you have to do to earn, is click one button (for example "Buy") and a moment later the
other button ("Sell"). If the price of the chosen currency pair rises in meanwhile, you can earn even
400 times more then the increase in the currency pair price.
This way, just at the effort of a few clicks a day, you can earn thousands or even hundred of
thousand dollars per day.
» OK, where the catch?
Well, the crucial thing is to know which button to press. So far this all seems more like lottery than
a method for a steady income. That's it. Many people feel that investing in Forex is more like
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Selling Gold For Maximum Profits, the Way Pros Do!

Given the recent increase in the value of gold which now currently stands at just over $1000 many people, wanting to capitalise on this trend, now want to try their hand at selling gold in a bid to make money? However, there is a great deal of strategy involved in terms of both purchasing and selling gold, and so it is imperative that a person who wishes to trade in gold for a profit becomes more aware of the factors which influence the value of it. All too often, inexperienced sellers keen to make a quick buck and becoming too greedy for their own good, sell gold at the first semi-decent price offered by a trader and this means that they miss out on substantial amounts of money.
There is a wide variety of different methods used to calculate and assess the value of gold, and an awareness of the different methods is crucial, because different traders will apply and make use of different methods to calculate the relative value. The overwhelming majority of gold brokers will rely on pennyweight scales to value your gold, and it can be a rather confusing process for the inexperienced seller. The drawback of pennyweight scales when selling gold is that they can be all too easily manipulated in a number of different ways, all of which stack the odds firmly in the buyers favour.
Gold brokers rely on people's ignorance to make that extra few dollars, and so if they can tell you are totally oblivious as to how gold is valued, then they will ruthlessly exploit this advantage. Knowledge truly is power in this context.
To try and combat this, make sure you measure and value your gold according to the gram scale, as this will give you a much fairer and precise value. In addition, you can always use this as a means of throwing gold traders off balance, if they realise you have some working understanding of how gold valuation works, then they will be less likely to cheat you! If you are determined on selling gold, and want to maximise your profits, your best bet is to ensure that you directly with the smelter or the refiner. Cut out the middleman, i.e. gold traders and sell your scrap gold direct to the source, and that way you will get the best possible return, make sure you are thorough and research potential candidates, so that you deal only with a reputable company. At the same time, make sure you brush up on the relative values and going prices for the scrap gold.
Alternatively, you may want to consider selling online, this will allow you to reach a wider audience, and if you use auction style and auction based websites such as EBay, this will allow you to drive the price up further as more and more people (hopefully) bid on your gold. Whereas selling gold in real life can be rather daunting what with the face to face hassle of negotiation, online trading removes this awkward phase of things making life much easier. In addition, you can set a reserve, which is simply a minimum price that you will not sell your for unless an asking price either matches or exceeds it.
Find out how to make selling gold very profitable. Don't worry, price of gold will never be the only factor worthy considering, before you start counting the money!
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Sam_Montgomery

Semua menunggu Federal Funds Rate

Dini hari nanti, sekitar pukul 01.15 semua trader dunia tampaknya akan menunggu pengumuman suku bunga The Fed.

Peristiwa ini selalu terjadi setiap bulannya.

Diprediksikan The Fed tidak akan terburu-buru untuk menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya, meskipun terjadi inflasi di USA. Hal ini dikarenakan masih buruknya krisis di Amerika dan data-data ekonomi yang belum membaik. Jika suku bunga dinaikkan, maka dikhawatirkan akan mempengaruhi sektor riil.

Selain berita The Fed, para trader harap memperhatikan Durable Goods malam ini. Dipastikan volume perdagangan hari ini akan cukup tinggi mengingat banyaknya data-data ekonomi yang akan keluar.

Selasa, 24 Juni 2008

EURO melemah karena data PMI dan German Ifo Business Climate Index yang buruk

Hari Senin (23/6) Euro melemah terhadap USD karena buruknya data PMI dan Business Climate Index.

Akibat tersebut membuat nilai EURO pada kisaran 1.5467 terhadap USD.
Perkiraan saya hari ini EURO akan mengalami koreksi terhadap USD.

Untuk trading hari ini, saya sarankan untuk menunggu data German Consumer Confidence pada pukul 13.00

Analisa Teknikal EURO
R3 1.5766
R2 1.5697
R1 1.5606
PV 1.5537
S1 1.5446
S2 1.5377
S3 1.5286

Untuk time frame 4H, Euro masih mengalami downtren.
Untuk time frame 1H, Euro masih mengalami uptren.

Kamis, 19 Juni 2008

Jangan gunakan sistem jebakan berita

Pada tips dan trik forex yang lalu saya memberikan sistem trading untuk memasang jebakan ketika ada berita besar.

Setelah saya praktekkan sistem tersebut beberapa kali (baik dalam real account maupun virtual), ternyata sistem tersebut terdapat kelemahan.

Sistem jebakan hanya efektif bila dampak berita searah. Nah, untuk mengetahui hal tersebut sangatlah sukar. Siapa pun di dunia ini saya percaya tidak ada yang bisa memprediksi dampak berita secara akurat 100%.

Memang pada sistem jebakan presentase keberhasilan 50 -60%. Hal tersebut dikarenakan apabila berita besar terjadi kebanyakan terjadi whipsaw atau harga bergerak naik sesaat (biasanya 20-50 poin, dalam berita NPF bisa sampai 100 poin) lalu bergerak turun secara cepat atau sebaliknya turun dulu baru naik.

Untuk itu saya sarankan jangan gunakan sistem jebakan. Kalau ada berita mending ditunggu saja hasil beritanya apa. Lalu lihat chart / tren pasar saat itu, baru open posisition. Dijamin sistem ini lebih efektif dari sistem jebakan.

Selasa, 17 Juni 2008

Euro menguat setelah sepekan tertekan oleh USD

Hari Senin (16/6), nilai tukar EURO dan GBP terhadap USD mengalami peningkatan yang cukup dratis. Hal ini selain disebabkan oleh tertekannya Euro dan USD selama sepekan kemarin, data-data ekonomi Amerika masih belum menunjukkan kabar yang menggembirakan.

Meskipun ancaman inflasi global terus meningkat, tapi The Fed akan menunggu perkembangan untuk menaikkan suku bunganya. Data Empire State Business Conditions Index US pun tidak cukup menggembirakan.

Untuk trading hari ini, Euro masih mempunyai kecenderungan untuk menguat. Tapi lebih baik para trader menunggu data German ZEW Economic Sentiment dan PPI US malam ini.

Jumat, 13 Juni 2008

Euro lemah karena kemungkinan inflasi global

Pada perdagangan forex hari Kamis (12/6) nilai tukar Euro terus mengalami pelemahan terhadapa USD. Nilai terendah yang dicapai adalah 1.5381.

Penurunan nilai tukar tersebut disebabkan oleh naiknya harga minyak dunia dan harga pangan. Para ekonom global memperkirakan akibat dari kenaikan harga minyak dan pangan tersebut adalah terjadinya inflasi secara global.

Apabila inflasi memang terjadi maka kemungkinan besar The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga-nya. Hal tersebut memicu para investor untuk beramai-ramai membei dollar US.

Penguatan USD juga didukung oleh data Retail Sales yang cukup baik tadi malam.

Analisa Forex Hari ini
Major Currency saat ini masih dalam tren yang menurun.
Untuk para trader, saya sarankan agar berhati-hati karena data-data yang mempunyai efek kecil pun dapat mempengaruhi pasar.

Sebaiknya untuk masuk ke pasar, disarankan untuk wait and see dahulu. Terlebih ada data CPI yang akan diumumkan US malam ini.

Kamis, 12 Juni 2008

Tips dan Trik Forex

#TIPS DAN TRICK 1. MANFAATKAN NEWS

Berikut 11 ( sebelas ) Besar Peringkat News yang perlu di perhitungkan :

1. NonFarm_Payroll USA (efek 100 – 200 pips).
2. Trade Balance USA (efek 70 – 120 pips).
3. Interest Rate Statements (efek 100 pips).
4. Durable Good (efek 50 – 100 pips).
5. Producer Price Index (efek 50 – 60 pips)
6. PPI excl. Food and Energy (efek 50 – 60 pips)
7. Consumer Price Index (efek 50 – 60 pips).
8. CPI excl. Food and Energy (efek 50 – 60 pips).
9. Trichet, Bernanke, & Fukui Speaks (efek 30 – 100 pips).
10. Unemployment Rate (efek 30 – 50 pips).
11. German Ifo Business Climate Index EURO (30 – 60 pips)

Nah, silahkan anda gunakan perangkap pada 10-15 menit menjelang News ini muncul.

Selain dari News ini, silahkan abaikan saja [tidak berguna].

Caranya:
* Open metatrader dengan time frame 30 Menit*
Lihat harga sekarang*
Open 25 sampai 30 pips dari harga sekarang,
misal harga GBPUSD sekarang adalah 1.8425, maka anda bisa open BUY STOP 1.8450 dan SELL STOP di 1.8400.

* Ambil Target sesuai dengan Kekuatan EFEK nya,
misal Take Profit = 50 (TP terserah anda)*
Jangan lupa pakai Stop Loss 50% dari target anda, misal Stop Loss = 30*

Jika anda menggunakan Metatrader untuk trading real,
maka jangan lupa set Trailing Stop = 15,
caranya klik kanan di order anda kemudian Set Trailing Stop 15 pips. Trailing Stop bertujuan untuk menggeser stop loss menjadi take profit.

misal Stop loss mula mula adalah -40 pips, maka ketika anda profit +30 maka Stop Loss akan otomatis bergeser +15 pips dan semakin profit bertambah maka trailing stop akan otomatis bertambah

Rabu, 11 Juni 2008

Dollar strong akibat pernyataan Bernake

Pernyataan Bernake pagi ini pukul 07.15 WIB kembali membuat USD menguat. Selain dipicu oleh data perumahan US yang membaik hari Senin malam dan suntikan dana dari Lehman untuk mengatasi krisis perumahan, tampaknya pihak US memang ingin meraih kembali kepercayaan investor. Meskipun data trade balance US buruk tapi hal tersebut tidak berpengaruh pada investor.

Selasa, 10 Juni 2008

US menguat akibat treasury form

Nilai mata uang USD tadi malam menguat cukup kencang. Nilai tukar USD terhadap Euro diperdagangkan dari level 1.5800 menjadi 1.5634. Penguatan yang sangat berarti bagi USD.

Membaiknya sektor perumahan di USD dan kemungkinan ada tambahan dana dari Lehman membuat USD menguat.
Tetapi menurut beberapa analis, apabila intervensi penguatan tersebut gagal, kemungkinan nilai tukar USD terhdapa Euro bisa anjlok hingga 1.6000.

Untuk analisa trading hari ini adalah cermati pidato Bernake pukul 07.15 kemudian pasang perangkap di pengumuman trade balance US. Diperkirakan USD masih tetap menguat.

Senin, 09 Juni 2008

Free Indicator

Saya telah menemukan web site menarik yang menyediakan indicator yang cukup akurat.
Saya sendiri juga telah mempergunakan indicator-indicator dari web tersebut.

Bila ada yang berminat, dapat browsing ke www.forexperfect.com
Registrasinya gratis dan dijamin bermanfaat untuk trading.

Jumat, 06 Juni 2008

Thanks God for 140 pips

Nilai Euro dan GBP malam tadi naik drastis, terutama EURO. Meskipun EBC dan BOE tetap mempertahankan suku bunganya dan klaim pengangguran di US menurun, tapi nampaknya hal tersebut bukan acuan bagi para investor.

Tertekannya nilai EURO dan GBP dalam 3 hari terakhir membuat EURO dan GBP bullish gila2 an tadi malam. Dan ternyata prediksi saya 100 % tepat.

Alhamdulillah, dapat 140 pips.

Forecast saya hari ini adalah, pagi sampai sore jangan trading, mending liat chart dan cari fundamental sebanyak2nya. lalu tunggu pengumuman NFP, dan pasang jebakan. Saya perkirakan GBP akan bullish oleh NFP.

Kamis, 05 Juni 2008

Dollar menguat lagi akibat pernyataan Bernake

Semalam, dalam pidato nya Bernake mengisyaratkan akan menaikkan kembali suku bunga the Fed. Hal ini dikarenakan tingkat inflasi yang terjadi di Amerika semakin meningkat.

Euro turun pada level 1.5417 hampir mendekati level support 1.5400

Hari ini diperkirakan ECB tidak akan menaikkan suku bunganya, yaitu masih tetap pada level 4%. Sedangkan BOE juga akan melakukan hal yang sama, yaitu mempertahankan tingkat suku bunganya yaitu 5%.

Saran saya untuk trading hari ini adalah memasang perangkap berita pada pengumuman tersebut, terutama GBP. Menurut saya GBP dan EURO akan kembali rebound karena 2 hari terakhir ini tertekan oleh USD.

Rabu, 04 Juni 2008

Pernyataan Bernake lemahkan euro

Pidato Bernake tadi malam dari Barcelona via satelite melemahkan nilai tukar euro hingga level 1.5411 terhadap dollar. Bernake mengatakan bahwa kemungkinan akan terjadi resiko peningkatan inflasi di Amerika. Dan apabila terjadi inflasi seperti yang diperkirakan, maka kemungkinan besar the Fed akan menikkan suku bunga nya.

Hal tersebut yang membuat para investor kembali ke mata uang dollar USD.

Saran untuk hari ini adalah lakukan buy EURO pada 1.5450 dengan stop loss 1.5400 dan target profit 1.5500

Untuk para trader GBP sebaiknya menunggu laporan PMI jam 15,30